Reality Check on Climate Change
As a society, we find ourselves at the center of a global crisis of our own making. Our profound impact on the climate threatens future generations with devastating consequences. While the worst-case scenarios may seem distant, they highlight the urgency of taking action now.
Climate change brings, among other bad consequences, escalating economic costs and social instability. Extreme weather events—floods, hurricanes, droughts—damage infrastructure, reduce agricultural yields, and increase food insecurity. Rising sea levels displace coastal communities, creating climate refugees and straining global resources. The devastating floods in Valencia of Novemeber 2024 underscore the tragic consequences of inadequate climate adaptation measures.
Global Warming and the Greenhouse Effect
“Climate change” may sound mild, but it is essentially global warming driven by greenhouse gases like CO₂, methane (CH₄), and others. These gases trap heat, creating a “greenhouse effect” that raises global temperatures. While this effect is natural, human activities have intensified it, leading to rapid warming.
The primary driver of these emissions is fossil fuel combustion, a cornerstone of human progress since the Industrial Revolution. James Watt’s steam engine in 1760 marked a turning point, enabling unprecedented growth but also locking us into a cycle of carbon dependency. The link between CO₂ levels and temperature is well established: high CO₂ periods coincide with warmer climates, while lower levels align with ice ages.
Although the effect has been well known for over a century, emissions have continued to rise. Some suggest we may be nearing the peak, but this won’t be certain until we see a sustained and consistent decline from current levels.
Data sources: Global Carbon Budget (2023) – with major processing by Our World In Data
Who to blame?
The debate over climate responsibility often pits wealthy, high per capita emitters like the USA, Australia, and Canada against populous nations like China and India, whose total emissions now dominate due to sheer size. While richer countries have historically contributed more to global warming through decades of industrial activity, emerging economies argue that they deserve space to develop, pointing out their significantly lower emissions per person. However, climate change does not respond to per capita statistics but to the total volume of greenhouse gases released.
By the way, China already emits per capita similar to Germany.
by Tom Schulz, AQAL Capital, Munich
Fossil fuels, primarily used for energy production and certain chemical applications like plastics, remain central to our energy systems. In Western countries, especially among energy industry professionals like me, there’s a sense of optimism as records for renewable energy installations are consistently surpassed. However, when examining coal usage—the largest contributor to CO₂ emissions—the picture is more complex.
Are we really phasing out coal?
Despite the growth in renewables, global coal consumption remains at record highs. The International Energy Agency (IEA) reported that in 2022, coal demand reached an all-time peak of 8.42 billion tonnes, with significant increases in countries like China and India. Projections suggest that coal demand may plateau around 2026, but a consistent decline is necessary to confirm this trend. Moreover, while some nations reduce their coal usage, others continue to expand it, leading to carbon leakage that undermines global reduction efforts.
Adapted from IEA. Coal 2023. Analysis and forecast to 2026.
Throughout Earth’s history, life has persisted through a wide range of temperatures, including periods significantly warmer than today. For instance, during the early Eocene epoch, approximately 50 million years ago, global temperatures were about 9 to 14 degrees Celsius higher than current averages, and polar regions were free of ice. However, Homo sapiens emerged only around 300,000 years ago, during a time of relatively stable and cooler climate conditions.
The rapid warming observed in recent decades is unprecedented in human history. In 2023, Earth’s average surface temperature was about 1.36 degrees Celsius warmer than the late 19th-century preindustrial average, marking the warmest year on record. This trend suggests we are approaching temperature levels not seen since long before human existence, raising concerns about our ability to adapt to such rapid and significant changes.
Source: Haywood, AM et al.
The Road to Net Zero: Why Is It So Difficult?
The concept of “Net Zero” refers to balancing the amount of greenhouse gases emitted with an equivalent amount removed from the atmosphere, ultimately reducing the net release to zero. Achieving Net Zero is a formidable challenge, requiring a steady annual reduction in emissions over the coming decades. To stay on track with the 1.5-degree Celsius target set by the Paris Agreement, global emissions need to decline by approximately 7.6% per year from 2020 through 2030. For the 2-degree target, the required reduction is around 2.7% per year.
However, the 1.5-degree target may already be out of reach, as we are approaching that average temperature sooner than anticipated.
Data sources: Robbie Andrew – processed by Our World In Data
These reduction rates are now unreal, given that emissions have continued to rise or remain flat in recent years. In fact, the only significant drop in emissions occurred in 2020, when global carbon emissions fell by about 6.4% due to the COVID-19 pandemic and widespread lockdown measures. This illustrates the scale of change needed—akin to a global economic slowdown every year—highlighting how far we are from the necessary trajectory.
Solutions That Could Help Us
- Nuclear Energy: Low-carbon baseload, but faces safety concerns (although it is statistically very safe).
- Renewables + Storage: Solar, wind, and hydropower paired with better batteries. This will also alleviate the curtailment concerns that are slowing down investments.
- Electrification of Transport: Expand electric vehicle infrastructure and use.
- Heat Pumps: Efficient heating, reducing reliance on natural gas.
- Hydrogen Fuel: Green hydrogen for industry and transport, although lately it seems the hype on H2 has popped.
- Flexible Demand Policies: Carbon pricing and incentives to balance energy use on the demand side.
- Public Transport Upgrades: High-speed trains (or hyperloop?) and improved urban infrastructure.
- Recycling and Circular Economy: Design products for better recyclability and longer use.
Technologies Needing Research
- Nuclear Fusion: Promising but not yet commercially viable.
- Carbon Capture (CCS): High cost and limited application.
- Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF): Needed to decarbonize air travel.
- Ambient Superconductors: Potential for zero-loss power transmission plus other wonders seen in sci-fi movies.
- Geoengineering: High-risk climate interventions like aerosol injection.
- AI-Singularity: Potential for exponential advancements beyond our current comprehension but in short we just see increased data center energy use.
Actions That Hinder Progress
- Return to Office Mandates: Increases commuting emissions, plus annoying almost every single worker :-(
- Cheap Air Travel: Drives up aviation emissions plus enables massive tourism.
- Outsourcing Emissions: Shifts emissions rather than reducing them, as we are probably doing with coal.
- Fast Fashion: Resource-intensive and wasteful, the extreme programmed obsolescence.
- Non-Local, Processed Foods: High emissions from transport and meat-heavy diets.
- Fossil Fuel Baseloads: Keeps us reliant on coal and gas. But apart from nuclear, is there any other option?
- LNG Trade: High emissions from liquefaction and transport processes.
- Excessive Shipping: What is the Carbon footprint from shipping Chinese stuff around the world?
- Private Car Ownership: Though it may seem unpopular, shared mobility is a more sustainable choice that also makes our cities more liveable.
Conclusion: An Infrastructure Problem Requiring Bold Action
At its core, tackling climate change is an infrastructure problem requiring massive, accelerated investment. To achieve the necessary transformation, we need to rethink how we allocate resources. Why not implement a green tax or mandate a percentage of corporate profits to be reinvested in sustainable initiatives? This approach would create the financial momentum needed to fund the transition to renewable energy, advanced transportation networks, and resilient urban systems.
Failing to act will likely put us on a path toward 3 degrees of warming, a scenario that brings catastrophic risks: extreme weather, widespread displacement, and irreversible ecosystem damage.
We must also confront the reality that lifestyle changes are part of the solution. Adopting electric vehicles, reducing flights, and embracing shared mobility might seem inconvenient now, but these small sacrifices pale in comparison to the consequences of inaction.
The real challenge is overcoming the prisoner’s dilemma of climate action, where everyone waits for someone else to make the first move. We cannot afford to wait. Bold, coordinated investment and proactive policy changes are our best chance to secure a livable future for generations to come.
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